US presidential elections: How a Harris or Trump win would impact the UK

As America goes to the polls, the Mirror's team of specialists looks at the potential impact of either a or triumph for the UK. We examine the consequences of the result for life in Britain, whichever presidential candidate wins.

From defence, race relations, the and the environment to health, crime, the economy, consumer and the UK's special relationship, there is a huge difference between the two hopefuls.]

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Christopher Bucktin, US Editor

Under , the 'Special Relationship’ between the US and the UK has undeniably cooled. The president’s personal and political leanings often took precedence, and his Irish heritage - along with his disapproval of - put the nation firmly in the diplomatic back seat.

Britain’s influence in Washington has felt sidelined, as Biden’s administration prioritised other alliances and, at times, overlooked the UK on key issues such as a trade deal. But the election offers a chance for the country to regain its footing - a reset.

Given his open affection for the UK, a Trump victory could be advantageous. His administration would likely emphasise trade and security ties with Britain but do not be fooled. The businessman has not taken kindly to our new Labour Government after party workers recently visited the States to campaign for Harris.

Repairing the relationship with Sir Keir’s team would be essential for practical diplomacy. Still, Trump’s admiration for Britain could pave the way for fresh agreements, although they might come with his characteristic unpredictability. On the other hand, a Harris win could bring a different kind of reset.

Unlike Biden, given her inexperience in international diplomacy, she could embrace the special relationship as a strategic priority in the current, growing turmoil worldwide. Her administration would have an opportunity to rebuild trust and cooperation, aligning with Britain on issues like climate change and defence.

She could restore the traditional bonds that Biden, to many in Britain’s political circles, allowed to weaken. Whether through Trump’s overtures or Harris’s diplomacy, today’s election will turn a new page. For both the UK and the US, it could mark a chance to strengthen the transatlantic bond at a critical time when the remains on edge.

Chris Hughes, Defence and Security Editor

A Trump presidency would spell difficulty for UK defence as he could pile pressure on us and the rest of NATO regarding and the threat from . At the very worst he may want to leave NATO and he has indicated he would offer less support to Ukraine against ’s full-scale invasion.

It is likely we may be under pressure to provide more support to Ukraine and other NATO countries than we would if Kamal Harris wins the election. In my view a Harris victory would be more stable for the world but the Biden administration’s full-support of ’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon could put the UK under another pressure.

I believe a Harris win would be better for UK defence and global stability but may spell some trouble for the UK as far as securing ourselves against terrorism. The UK’s material support for Israel, along with that of the BIden administration, has attracted the attention of anti-Israeli militants but a Trump win would probably be even worse.

Many right-wingers believe a Trump win will be better for global security but I believe they are wrong - Harris means greater stability, less bellicose threats and a more certain future.

Tom Pettifor, Crime Editor

The violence that swept across UK towns and cities this summer was fuelled by misinformation online, the far-right and anti-immigration sentiment.

If Trump returns to the Whitehouse we could see all of these factors becoming even more of a concern in the next few years. Richard Grenell, a key supporter of Trump, claimed the rioters weren't politically far right and hit out at Prime Minister for "cancelling" opponents.

And one of Trump's leading funders, tech billionaire Elon Musk, fuelled the disorder by suggesting that "civil war is inevitable". The owner of X, formerly , posted the remarks on the platform in response to a video showing people aiming fireworks at police.

Sir Kier's spokesperson said there was "no justification" for his comments, adding there was more that social media companies "can and should be doing". Musk then replied to a post on X from the prime minister - in which Sir Keir said he would not tolerate attacks on mosques or Muslim communities - asking: "Shouldn't you be concerned about attacks on *all* communities?"

It is clear that Musk will have a huge influence on any potential Trump administration and would welcome even less regulation of social media platforms like X. This could lead to the promotion of more lies and extremist views, increasing the likelihood of further violence in future.

A Kamala Harris win will be far less of a concern for UK police chiefs. But whoever take power, we will continue to see the US and UK law enforcement agencies working closely together to fight international organised crime, terrorism, people trafficking and child sexual abuse.

Nada Farhoud, Environment Editor

It is impossible to downplay the importance of the US presidential election. The outcome will impact way beyond the shores of the US in particular when it comes to the climate crisis.

While Vice President Harris hasn’t detailed a plan yet, she called global warming an “existential threat” and wants to hasten the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, former President Trump wants to stop it. He has already called climate change “one of the greatest scams of all time,” while ramping up drilling for oil and gas, including in the Arctic during his time in the White House.

He withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement during his first term and – after President Biden quickly rejoined – has said that he’d do so again. Worryingly, this time it could be far harder for another Democratic president to overturn according to legal experts who have examined the 900-plus-page Project 2025 policy blueprint that Trump loyalists have drawn up.

Another four years of Trump will also embolden other countries to take their climate policies in the wrong direction - at a time when the planet is hurtling towards catastrophic heating. Just days after tomorrow’s election, Azerbaijan will host COP29, the UN climate summit, where nations will attempt to deliver the urgent cuts in fossil fuel burning that scientists say are imperative to avoid the most destructive impacts of climate breakdown.

It is essential that the global leaders who attend not only agree to reduce their reliance on burning fossil fuels but this time they commit to an end date to completely phase them out and replace them with renewable energy sources. Every day this is delayed, the more severe and more frequent events like Spain’s tragic floods will become.

To have the president of the world’s richest nation and world’s biggest historic emitter threaten this will throw a dark cloud over Baku’s negotiations. But worst of all, the impact of a Trump victory will have a devastating impact on climate action that will be felt for decades.

Russell Myers, Royal Editor

The US election will be watched closely by the royal family and those in the corridors of power at . The power of soft diplomacy can not be underestimated and the monarch, supported by the senior royals, will be called into action to host state visits and smooth over any transition for the so-called "special relationship".

If Trump makes it to the White House for a second time, however, the royals might be deployed sooner rather than later. Trump relished the chance to come to the UK in 2019, where he and the First Lady were welcomed by the late Queen to Buckingham Palace, given a tour of the Royal Collection and Westminster Abbey and hosted at a glittering State Banquet.

The President praised the "eternal friendship" between the UK and US while the Queen spoke of the alliance which had ensured the "safety and prosperity of both our peoples for decades". However, comments from the billionaire's son, Donald Jnr, last week, that the special relationship is "certainly not off to a great start" if Trump wins will cause alarm inside Number 10.

Trump's campaign has filed an official complaint against the , accusing it of "blatant foreign interference" in the US election after it emerged that party activists were volunteering for the Harris-Walz campaign.

The royals do their best to steer clear of politics, in public anyway, but the direction of the US and its next president will have a profound effect on King Charles' government, which may mean extra duties for the King and Queen or other royals to undertake a state visit on the other side of the pond.

If Kamala Harris takes the election, things could look very different for all involved. However, concerns remain over Britain's role on the international stage, amid calls for reparations for growing republican movements across the 14 other British realms where Charles is King. The world is an ever changing place, a matter perfectly encapsulated in the race for the White House.

Graham Hiscott, Head of Business

The outcome of the US elections could - depending on who wins, and what they do - impact the finances of millions of people in Britain. Investment bank Peel Hunt flagged the possible impact on UK stock markets. That matters for very many people in this country, whether they own shares directly, through an ISA or via their pension when it is invested in equities.

Its analysts say, whether Democrat Harris or Republican Trump win, their policies have “far-reaching consequences for the global economy and financial markets. On balance, both pose downside risks.”

They go on: “Both candidates propose a series of anti-growth measures that – if enacted - could impair US economic performance.” So the saying goes, when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. Hence it could impact economic growth around the world, including the UK.

One policy singled out is Trump's threat to impose tariffs on imported goods to the US. If he won, and went ahead, it could push up the cost of UK-made goods, from vehicles to whisky. Trump’s policies on tariffs - along with immigration and tax - could put upward pressure on inflation, analysts believe, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate.

Martin Bagot, Health Editor

The US election will have limited direct impact on the health of Britain but there will be some suspicions of Trump’s motives towards the . If Trump wins the White House it will resurrect talk that the NHS will be “on the table” in any UK-US trade deal.

During his previous tenure as the leader of the free world in 2019, Trump insisted “everything is on the table” in an awkward joint press conference with then-Prime Minister . Since then a promised post-Brexit trade deal with the US has not yet materialised.

But the comments sparked fears that Trump’s administration would push for US healthcare firms to win outsourcing contracts to run NHS services and he would push up drug prices by undermining its collective bargaining power. However, during a NATO summit in London later in 2019 President Trump contradicted his earlier statement, saying the US wanted “nothing to do with” the NHS.

The US election comes at a time when Health Secretary Wes Streeting has signalled he is open to greater involvement of profit-making firms in running the NHS. If Harris takes the White House it’s hard to argue there will be any direct impact on the NHS.

Natasha Wynarczyk

The US is the top travel destination for Brits outside of Europe, with 3.9 million visits last year. But in the event of a Donald Trump presidency, it could be harder for some Britons to travel to the US even if for a holiday.

Trump is expected to be bringing back - and extending - the 'Muslim ban' from his first term. This barred people from seven countries including Iran, Syria and Sudan from entering the US. British people with dual nationalities from these countries are not allowed an ESTA for easy travel and would need to apply for a visa to visit the US.

However, this can take a long time to come through - especially if the applicant is subject to extra screening which would be likely in this scenario. It is the same situation for people who have been to Cuba - a popular destination for British people - since January 2021.

One small bit of good news for Britons is that the dollar has started falling as Trump has begun to slump in the polls, meaning a Harris victory could make our money stretch further on a holiday to the US.

Melissa Sigodo, Community Reporter

A Trump election victory would be a victory for bigots everywhere across the world. After a campaign filled with blatant racist remarks against Black people as well as Latin Americans, the trailer for what’s to come is nothing short of a horror film.

But not only for the US, but for those of us in the UK whose politics mirrors this carnival of extreme racial hatred and bigotry. We are not far behind in the race to become a far-right nation which prides itself on white supremacy dressed up as patriotism. An unwelcoming nation which demonises those who come in search of refuge in a world increasingly more war-hungry.

So although our current government isn’t blurting out overtly racist statements, a climate thriving in the US will undoubtedly push boundaries on what is accepted as the norm. But the UK can still resist the path that leads to destruction and refuse to dance to the tune. But only if it stays away from the rhetoric that sees Black and Brown people attacked in the street and tries to unite a country at a time when it needs it the most.

A Harris victory would be a victory for the meantime. In a world that is more divided than ever, those who want to maintain power won’t take this lying down. The former President who oversaw years of destruction, has opened a Pandora’s box on bigotry and racism. He has normalised the rhetoric that once brought people shame and has made it mainstream enough to air on television, not only in the US but in the UK. Although Trump has lost his opportunity, several more “Trumps” are waiting in the wings to continue his legacy of hate here in Britain.

Those who see him as a friend have set up their base as a political party in government by the name of Reform. We cannot forget that this year saw the former Prime Minister called the P-word while racist rioting brought the country to a standstill. The pressure cooker is on for those who gained power by playing into the hands of racists wanting to “get their countries back" because now more than ever, they'll want to see it happen. While those who are disciples of Trump, will be waiting patiently for their chance to seize the moment.