Polling expert Nate Silver criticized other pollsters for manipulating survey results in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. He accused them of recycling past results to keep the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appearing close. Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, called out pollsters for "herding" their numbers, specifically mentioning Emerson College in his criticism.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said during an episode of his weekly podcast, Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!”
Also Read: Allan Lichtman, the ‘Election Nostradamus,’ feels the pressure but won't waver on Kamala Harris win prediction
Silver's own model shows Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as the election nears. He expressed frustration with pollsters showing close races consistently, arguing they were trying not to stand out. He suggested, “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!”
Silver also criticized pollsters who avoid releasing surprising numbers, saying, “If a pollster never publishes any numbers that surprises you, then it has no value.”
In a New York Times op-ed, Silver emphasized skepticism about gut feelings in predicting elections, citing past under-sampling of Trump supporters, which he said skewed results. He noted that “Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization.”
Also Read: When will India come to know of the US election outcome?
Despite the issues with polling, Silver pointed out that swing-state polls indicate a close race, with all seven states polling within a point and a half. “It doesn’t take a genius to know that if every swing state is a tie, that the overall forecast is a tie," he said.
Silver remains consistent in his prediction that Trump will win over Harris, maintaining a margin of 55% to 45%. He also called out GOP-leaning polling firms for consistently showing Trump with a narrow lead to avoid making bold predictions.
Trump is currently leading Harris in national and swing-state averages, according to RealClearPolitics, while the New York Times/Siena College poll showed the two tied at 48%. Silver, however, advised caution and continued scrutiny of polling methodologies in the final days leading up to the election.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said during an episode of his weekly podcast, Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!”
Also Read: Allan Lichtman, the ‘Election Nostradamus,’ feels the pressure but won't waver on Kamala Harris win prediction
Silver's own model shows Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as the election nears. He expressed frustration with pollsters showing close races consistently, arguing they were trying not to stand out. He suggested, “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You’re putting your f–king finger on the scale!”
Silver also criticized pollsters who avoid releasing surprising numbers, saying, “If a pollster never publishes any numbers that surprises you, then it has no value.”
In a New York Times op-ed, Silver emphasized skepticism about gut feelings in predicting elections, citing past under-sampling of Trump supporters, which he said skewed results. He noted that “Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization.”
Also Read: When will India come to know of the US election outcome?
Despite the issues with polling, Silver pointed out that swing-state polls indicate a close race, with all seven states polling within a point and a half. “It doesn’t take a genius to know that if every swing state is a tie, that the overall forecast is a tie," he said.
Silver remains consistent in his prediction that Trump will win over Harris, maintaining a margin of 55% to 45%. He also called out GOP-leaning polling firms for consistently showing Trump with a narrow lead to avoid making bold predictions.
Trump is currently leading Harris in national and swing-state averages, according to RealClearPolitics, while the New York Times/Siena College poll showed the two tied at 48%. Silver, however, advised caution and continued scrutiny of polling methodologies in the final days leading up to the election.
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